BEYOND THE DROPZONE

More on the “Master Campaign”

Posted by editor on 30 September 2008 at 12:28 am UTC

By W. Thomas Smith Jr.

Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV and other media — both bad guys (like Hezbollah) and good guys — are reporting a statement purportedly uttered by Syrian Pres. Bashar Assad during a recent interview for Hawadeth magazine, which clearly supports Dr. Walid Phares’ analysis (read for background here and here) that Syria may well-be prepping the international community – setting up some justification – for that country’s forthcoming cross-border military operations into Lebanon.

“North Lebanon became a real base for extremism and constitutes a danger for Syria,” Assad said in the interview, slated to be published Friday.

Phares discusses the comment further at Counterterrorism Blog.

Meanwhile, the Daily Star is reporting that parliamentarian Saad Hariri, leader of the Future Movement and son of the assassinated former prime minister Rafik Hariri, said:

“Some agencies were smuggling extremist fighters over the borders ‘in order to spread chaos and commit terrorist acts that target army officers and civilians.’

“He [Hariri] said last week’s deployment of Syrian troops all along Lebanon’s northern borders was carried out under the pretext of preventing smuggling, but was actually intended to frighten the Lebanese.

“Hariri questioned why similar deployments had not occurred on Syria’s borders with Israel and Iraq. The Syrian leadership was looking for any excuse to obstruct the normalization of relations with Lebanon, Hariri said, adding that the people of Lebanon would not accept Assad reassurances, because his actions contained an honest and direct threat to Lebanon’s sovereignty.

“Hariri also warned the international community not to accept any Syrian intervention in Lebanon under the guise of confronting extremists.”

— Visit W. Thomas Smith Jr. online at uswriter.com.

PHARES: Bombings in Lebanon and Syria are part of a Master Campaign

Posted by editor on 29 September 2008 at 1:13 pm UTC

By W. Thomas Smith Jr.

A car-bomb targeting Lebanese soldiers exploded in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, this morning. Five people were killed and scores wounded in today’s attack which was carried out less than two months after a similar attack in the same city, and two days following a powerful car-bomb attack in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

The attacks – coinciding with the recent strengthening of Syrian Army forces on the northern Lebanese-Syrian border (and various unconfirmed reports of Syrian special operators who have perhaps been crossing into Lebanon since at least early September) – may well be a coordinated effort fitting into a broader plan for Lebanon on the part of the Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah axis.

Dr. Walid Phares, director of the Future of Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, tells us:

“What we are now witnessing is a rapid unfolding of the Syro-Iranian terror campaign aimed at achieving several interconnected goals.

“The explosions in Lebanon are aimed at intimidating the Lebanese Army, the public, the politicians; and pressure all to accept an increasing role for Hezbollah and Syria within the country’s security apparatus. It is interesting to see the back-and-forth between the terror attacks against the Army and the statements made by Hezbollah and pro-Syrian politicians calling for a defense strategy to ‘protect Lebanon’: As if the message is: ‘You will continue to be attacked until we are in charge of security.’

“On the other hand, security related incidents and bomb attacks inside Syria appear to be sending a parallel message. The regime is eager to call itself a ‘target of terrorism.’ Hence, the accusation is now leveled at so-called factions inside Lebanon, meaning the mostly Sunni anti-Syrian politicians. Which leads to Syria’s so-called legitimate action against an enemy based in Lebanon.

“If you look at the two tracks (the attacks and incidents in Lebanon and Syria) you’ll understand that it is all connected in a master campaign aimed at breaking Syria’s isolation on the one hand and then isolating the Lebanese anti-Syrian factions on the other. All of it is accompanied by a systematic media campaign out of Beirut which is heavily backed by Iranian petrodollars.”

Phares has just returned from a European tour where he briefed members of the European Parliament, counterterrorism officials at the European Union, and various international Defense officials.

— Visit W. Thomas Smith Jr. online at uswriter.com.

PHARES: Syrian Mukhabarat Perhaps Responsible for Today’s Car-Bomb Attack

Posted by editor on 27 September 2008 at 4:26 pm UTC

By W. Thomas Smith Jr.

A powerful car-bomb detonated this morning in the Syrian capital, killing at least 17 and wounding scores. Why, who, or what terrorist entity is responsible has since been the subject of much speculation. But Middle East terrorism expert Professor Walid Phares says one “very possible scenario is that the attack was executed by the Syrian Mukhabarat (intelligence service) or one of these agencies as a prelude to attack Sunni strongholds inside Lebanon.”

Speaking by phone from Paris – where he is currently briefing counterterrorism experts, Defense officials, and others at the French Military Academy – Phares says: “When you connect the dots between Syrian President [Bashar] Assad, who calls on Lebanon’s president to send troops to the heavily Sunni-populated areas of north Lebanon, to the massing of Syrian troops along the northern borders, and then to the statements made by Syrian officials on Arab TV – including this morning on al Jazeera – that factions within Lebanon could be behind the explosion, you cannot but see the big picture: The strategic target of the Syrian regime is to control the Sunni areas in northern Lebanon who are fiercely opposing the pro-Assad Alawite militias in Tripoli and the advance of Hezbollah’s special units across the northern Bekaa towards Akkar in northern Lebanon.”

So the question is, would Syrian Intelligence forces actually detonate an explosive device on Syrian soil as a means of enflaming a situation, framing Lebanon, and creating an excuse to launch attacks across Lebanon’s borders?

Experts know there is no question but that they would. And as Phares explains: “The Syrian regime is desperately attempting to establish a perception of itself within the international community that Syria is engaged in combating Al Qaeda and its ilk inside Lebanon. It is within this perception that Syria hopes to gain some legitimacy from the West in order that Damascus may extend its reach and influence back inside its neighbor. The best way for Syria to accomplish this is to project an image of its being a victim to ‘Sunni radical terror.’ If one or more explosions inside Syrian territory will do it, that shouldn’t be a problem for a regime which is trying to save its skin in an ongoing international investigation and indictment in the Rafik Hariri assassination case.”

However, Phares says he does not expect “a direct Syrian intervention across the border into Lebanon; not immediately. The classical Syrian modus operandi is to see the situation deteriorating fully before they offer so-called ‘help.’”

He adds, “Fact is, the Assad regime is waiting to see who will enter the White House before moving to the next step toward Lebanon. For now the Syrian Mukhabarat is scoring point-by-point trying to regain the status of the regime internationally. That is very important for them.”

We asked Phares for his opinion regarding recent analysis proffered by everyone from Western media to consulting groups and think tanks, many of which contend the incident may well-be the result of increasing tension between Hezbollah and Syria.

“Just the opposite,” he says. “Everything is coordinated between Tehran and Damascus. If it were otherwise, we would have witnessed different types of actions between the two camps and additional statements. Iran and Syria are solidly moving forward to score points against the U.S., Europe, Arab moderates and the UN. Those analysts who propose otherwise are being influenced by the sharp and well-funded Syro-Iranian propaganda and the power of the petrodollar.”

Dr. Phares directs the Future of Terrorism Project for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and is a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels. He is currently on a European tour.

— Visit W. Thomas Smith Jr. online at uswriter.com.

Tensions flare between WCCR director and Lebanon’s (pro-Hezbollah) foreign minister at D.C. reception, this week

Posted by editor on 27 September 2008 at 2:57 pm UTC

By W. Thomas Smith Jr.