BEYOND THE DROPZONE

UPDATE: Syrian Army Reportedly Massing on Syrian-Lebanese Border

Posted by W. Thomas Smith Jr. on 22 September 2008 at 1:28 am UTC

Sources tonight are reporting that “Lebanese officials� monitoring the Lebanese-Syrian border (in the Akar region above Tripoli) today witnessed what was determined to be a “heavy� brigade-sized force being positioned on the Syrian side of the border.

Also tonight, Naharnet is reporting:

“Future Television said Syria was reinforcing its troops along its side of Lebanon’s northern borders.â€�

These reports follow several of our own reports – based on open sources and independent human intelligence sources – since September 7 that Syrian forces (including tanks, helicopters, and artillery pieces) have been observed massing on the northern border, and that Syrian special operations forces have crossed into Lebanon.

The Lebanese Army leadership has officially denied the reports of troops crossing into Lebanon, but sources are telling us the Army’s denials are a deliberate attempt to quash information.

Previous reports here and here.

UPDATE (Sept. 22, 8:30 am Eastern): The Lebanese Army has now confirmed that Syria has in fact “boosted troop numbers along the border,” and that “nearly 10,000 Syrian special forces have been deployed in the Abbudiya region along the border between Lebanon and Syria.”

Lebanese Army officials also report that the Army has asked Damacus why the massive uptick in military activities on the border, and the Syrians responded — and I paraphrase — to crackdown on smuggling and other criminal activity.

What? In other words Syria is saying (and the Lebanese Army is confirming) that tanks, artillery, helicopters, and 10,000 commandos (combined with recent reports and intelligence indicating some of those special operations forces had actually crossed into Lebanon) are simply measures taken to crackdown on crime?

UPDATE (Sept. 22, 9:30 am Eastern): Let’s add three other variables into the mix:

First, what better time for Syria to flex its military muscle than the period in which the U.S. and Europe are preoccupied with both the American presidential campaigns and last-and-this week’s upheaval in the U.S. and world financial markets.

Second, Syria and Russia have been cozying up together recently. Russia is sharing intelligence with Syria (which is in turn sharing that intelligence with Hezbollah and its allies). Additionally, Syria may be taking strategic-military cues from Russia, which recently invaded the former Soviet state of Georgia with virtual impunity.

Third, Syrian Pres. Bashar Assad is doing everything in his power to ensure the results of the spring 2009 parliamentary elections in Lebanon favor the pro-Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah axis (the March 8 terrorist crowd) as opposed to the pro-democracy majority (the March 14 movement).

Speaking to a delegation from the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (some of Hezbollah’s buddies who also were running around shooting civilians and burning buildings during Hezbollah’s attacks in May), Assad predicted the axis would emerge victorious in 2009, and that their victory “would change the existing state of political affairs.”

Assad added, “The forces that have defeated Israel would defeat their foes in Lebanon.”

Our sources are telling us that Assad would have no qualms about invading north Lebanon — if he could get away with it — to ensure Syria’s political-hand achieves political dominance in Beirut. And he would do so under the pretext of controlling the Salafists (whom Assad has ironically been feeding for some time).

Confusing to say the least. But it is a dangerous series of dynamics that have been coming to pass — and we’ve been warning about for months — which the West must understand if we are to have any chance of regaining our rapidly eroding political leverage (and supporting our pro-democracy allies) in Lebanon.

As I’ve said many times, Lebanon is one of our most critical fronts in the war on terror. Yet our unwillingness to confront the terrorists and their state-sponsors operating in sovereign Lebanon is irreparably eroding that front.

UPDATE (Sept. 22, 12:20 pm Eastern): This would be laughable if it weren’t so serious:

According to Naharnet, Gen. Michel Aoun — leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (a Christian bloc oddly allied to Shiia Hezbollah) – stated today “deployment of Syrian troops in Syria is none of our business.”

Understand: what Aoun is saying is that the recent deployment by Syria of its combat troops on the Syrian side of the Lebanese-Syrian border is none of Lebanon’s business.

AND THIS MAN IS A GENERAL?

Actually, Aoun’s comments have less to do with his military competency, and more to do with his strategic-political allegiances.

UPDATE (Sept. 22, 3:00 pm Eastern): As we’ve reported, it seems highly unlikely that Syria would deploy combat forces — to include tanks, artillery, helicopters, and 10,000 special operations soldiers (commandos) — as a means of taking a bite out of crime.

And according to Deutsche Presse-Agentur:

“Military experts who requested anonymity doubted a country would deploy 8,000 or 10,000 troops just to stop smuggling on its borders.”

— Visit W. Thomas Smith Jr. online at uswriter.com.

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