RECIPE FOR DISASTER: Increasing Risk of Terrorism, Decreasing Resources
Posted by editor on 30 May 2010 at 12:59 am UTC
BY THOMAS S. MULLIKIN
Americans are witnessing a spike in direct-threats and acts of terrorist-violence from Islamic extremists both at home and abroad. In 2009, a substantial number of terrorist organizations were uncovered, and numerous attacks and attempted attacks were directed at the United States. Many of the attacks were “homegrown” albeit with direct ties to the Middle East, such as the Little Rock recruiting center shooting and the attempted bombing in New York’s Times Square.
According to Patrick Poole, a U.S. military and law enforcement counterterrorism consultant, “this international nexus [of] domestic terror plots or attacks directed at Western targets seen both recently and historically has been the rule rather than the exception.”
Even in cases of so-called “self-radicalization,” the influence of recruitment videos produced by foreign terrorist organizations seems to be the underlying catalyst. Of the terrorist plots and actual terrorist attacks in the West since the 1980s, an underwhelming percentage is purely “homegrown,” says Poole.
Offer Baruch, a former member of Israel’s Shin Bet, highlights the reasoning behind the uptick in domestically produced, foreign-influenced terrorism: “The Taliban, al-Qaida [and] any affiliate radical Islamic organization would love to make some points in the war against the west. The biggest reward they can gain is conducting some kind of attack on American soil,” says J.J. Green, writing for the Washington, D.C.-based WTOP Radio website.
Additional sources of violence have increased for Americans living outside major metropolitan centers as the drug trade – and the international organized crime that goes with it – moves from urban areas into our communities.
How long will it be before we see the terrorist threat move in this same direction?
While the danger increases, we are feeling the financial pinch associated with greater deficits in both federal and state budgets.
One reason for shrinking tax dollars is the years of failed trade enforcement and onerous burdens on manufacturing across America. We have witnessed the exodus of nearly six-million manufacturing jobs from the U.S. in less than 10 years, significantly decreasing national and state tax revenue bases. The result is shrinking federal allocations for domestic protection, as well as decreasing state budgets to cover many of the same threats.
Furthermore, the worst recession since the 1930s has caused the steepest decline in state tax receipts on record. As a result, even after making deep cuts, states continue to face large budget gaps. New shortfalls have opened up in the budgets of at least 41 states for FY 2010, totaling $38 billion at mid-year. Initial indications are that states will face shortfalls as big as or bigger than they faced this year in the upcoming 2011 fiscal year.
Counting both initial and mid-year shortfalls, 48 states have addressed or still face such shortfalls in their budgets for fiscal year 2010, totaling $196 billion or 29 percent of state budgets — the largest gaps on record.
Similarly decreasing federal tax revenues prevents adequate assistance to states. The federal financial support for the South Carolina Military Department has seen dramatic cuts. There has been a decrease in financial support since the 2006 peak of $36.2 million to $18.6 million this year.
From 2008 to 2010, the lack of available funds parallels the economic recession as it directly correlates to federal budget cuts. The defense cuts send “a very clear signal that this administration is not going to be as forceful on national security issues as the previous administration. I think that’s pretty clear,” said Sen. Saxby Chambliss, Georgia Republican, as reported in the Washington Times.
At the same time state and federal budgets have been cut, domestic terrorism has seen a dramatic increase. Clare Lopez, Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy and a professor at the Centre for Counterintelligence & Security Studies, explained that “we have seen a jump not only in foreign-born jihadis, but American converts to Islam as well as naturalized citizens from Muslim countries of origin. Recent cases would include: Najibullah Zazi, David Headley, Jihad Jane/Jihad Jaime, Arkansas recruiter’s station shooter, Maj. Nidal Hasan, Abdulmutallab, and now Faisal Shahzad.”
“Knowing it’s harder to penetrate American defenses,” terrorist regimes have recruited American-born representatives “who understand our society’s strengths and vulnerabilities and who use the Internet to exhort people already living in the U.S. to launch terrorist attacks from within,” White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan said, according to Laura Rozen in Politico.
While many people believe the U.S. should use military resources as a major protector against domestic terrorism, they may not realize that the federal military is somewhat limited by statute. Therefore, state and local law enforcement agencies will no doubt be forced to play a larger role in the security and protection against increased threats in part due to the “Posse Comitatus Act” (18 U.S.C. § 1385). The Act prohibits most members of the federal uniformed services, including the Army, Air Force, and state National Guard forces when such are called into federal service, from exercising state law enforcement or police powers that maintain “law and order” on non-federal property (states and their counties and municipal divisions) within the U.S.
Taken together, this increased risk of terrorism and decreased domestic force protection expenditures could increase our country’s vulnerability to devastating attacks by any number of means—powerful explosive assaults against our people and infrastructure; merciless biological or radiological attacks; and cyber attacks on our critical financial and military information infrastructure. State and local planners working in conjunction with federal authorities need to heed the wake-up call of security experts and continue their efforts to vigorously coordinate Operational Security planning.
W. Thomas Smith Jr., a nationally recognized counterterrorism expert, said “the answer broadly speaking is fivefold. First, intelligence-sharing and coordination-of-effort between government agencies — though far improved since 9/11 — must be constantly refined. Second, the physical-security infrastructure — from static technology to the armed man — must keep ahead of the enemy’s ability to breach it. Third, information and intelligence gleaned from open sources must never be dismissed as somehow less-valid than classified intelligence. Fourth, counterterrorism and law-enforcement officials must gain and maintain subject matter proficiency. And fifth, public threat-awareness must be expanded.”
One thing is certain: attempting to solve a growing problem with shrinking resources is a sure journey to disaster. Let us hope and pray that we can solve the growing challenges of international terrorism before more American men, women and children lose their lives.
— LTC Thomas S. Mullikin – deputy director, Legal Directorate, Joint Services Detachment (JSD), S.C. Military Department – serves as civil affairs officer for the Counterterrorism Advisory Team, JSD. Mullikin previously served as Assistant Judge Advocate for the 360th Civil Affairs Brigade (Airborne) USAR, United States Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations, U.S. Army Special Operations Command.
NOTE: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and do not represent the opinions of World Defense Review and its affiliates. WDR accepts no responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or inaccuracy of the content of this or any other story published on this website. Copyright and all rights for this story (and all other stories by the author) are held by the author.
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